IRAN-ISRAEL CONFLICT

Iran fired drones, surface-to-surface missiles, and cruise missiles against Israel under Operation True Promise (Also called “Operation Honest Promise”)

The Iranian attack was in response to a suspected Israeli strike on an Iranian consular building in Damascus, Syria, which reportedly killed 12 people. In retaliation, the Iranian government announced a ban on all vessels linked to Israel from sailing in the Oman Sea and the Persian Gulf.

The current increase in tensions between Iran and Israel can be attributed to several factors:

• Geopolitical Rivalry: Iran aims to establish itself as the dominant power in the region, while Israel is deeply concerned about its national security.
• Support for Militant Groups: Iran provides support to groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. Additionally, Iran’s efforts to develop nuclear weapons pose a significant threat to Israel’s existence.

This conflict also highlights a broader narrative of religious and cultural confrontation:

• Clash of Civilizations: Iran's Islamic Republic fundamentally challenges the existence of Israel as a Jewish State, fostering a narrative of religious and cultural conflict. This underscores the broader tensions between the Muslim-majority Middle East and Israel, a Western-oriented, Jewish-majority nation.

Leaders from various countries worldwide have condemned the Iranian assault and have called for an immediate halt to hostilities.

Historical Background

 Pre-1979 Iranian Revolution:

• Early Relations: Despite not officially recognizing Israel post-1948, Iran maintained covert ties due to shared geopolitical interests.
• Recognition: Iran was the second Muslim-majority country to acknowledge Israel's sovereignty after Turkey.
• Pahlavi Dynasty: Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi's reign saw significant diplomatic, economic, and military collaboration with Israel, including oil supply and agricultural and military assistance.
• Strategic Alliance:  During this phase, both nations formed a partnership to counter Arab nationalism and Soviet influence in the region.

Post-1979 Iranian Revolution:

• Shift in Relations: Ayatollah Khomeini's rise marked a drastic change as Iran cut all diplomatic ties with Israel.
• Opposition to Western Influence: Khomeini regarded Israel as a symbol of Western imperialism and dubbed it the little Satan aligned with the Great Satan (United States).

Shadow War post-1979:

• In the early 2010s, Israel conducted targeted strikes on Iranian facilities and nuclear scientists to hinder Iran's nuclear weapons development.
• Notably, in 2010, Israel, along with the US, allegedly developed the Stuxnet computer virus to disrupt Iran's uranium enrichment at the Natanz nuclear site, marking the first publicly known cyber-attack on industrial infrastructure.

Iranian Support for Militant Groups

• Iran is accused of funding and supporting militant groups opposed to Israel and the US across the region.
• Notable recipients of Iranian support include Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, both known for their anti-Israel stance

Reasons behind the Conflict

Ideological Differences

• Islamic Republic of Iran: Established after the 1979 Revolution, which overthrew the pro-Western monarchy of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The new regime, led by Ayatollah Khomeini, adopted an anti-Western and anti-Israeli stance, viewing Israel as an illegitimate entity occupying Palestinian land.
• Israel: Identifies as a Jewish State with historical and religious ties to the land of Israel. It perceives Iran's support for militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, which call for Israel's destruction, as a fundamental threat to its security.

Historical Animosity

• Pre-1979 Relations: Before the 1979 Revolution, Iran and Israel maintained covert but significant diplomatic, economic, and military ties under the Pahlavi dynasty.
• Post-1979 Shift: The revolution marked a significant turning point, leading to the severing of diplomatic relations and the adoption of hostile rhetoric by Iran's new Islamic government towards Israel.

Israeli Security Concerns

• Nuclear Threat: Israel considers a nuclear-armed Iran an existential threat due to Iran's repeated calls for Israel's destruction and its support for proxy groups capable of launching attacks against Israel.
• Proxy Empowerment: Israel fears that a nuclear-armed Iran would embolden its proxies and increase the likelihood of direct confrontations.

Support for Proxy Groups

• Hezbollah and Hamas: Iran provides significant support to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, both of which have carried out attacks against Israel. Hezbollah has a substantial arsenal of rockets and missiles supplied by Iran, posing a direct threat to Israeli population centers.
• Military Operations: Israel has conducted numerous military operations to disrupt weapons shipments from Iran to its proxies and to prevent them from gaining advanced capabilities.

Geopolitical Rivalry and Regional Power Dynamics

• Regional Power Struggle: Iran and Israel are engaged in a regional power struggle, each seeking to expand its influence in the Middle East. This competition is evident in conflicts such as the Syrian Civil War.
• Syrian Civil War: Iran supports the Assad regime, while Israel opposes the Iranian military presence near its borders. Israel has carried out airstrikes in Syria targeting Iranian-backed militias and weapons shipments to prevent Iran from establishing a permanent military presence on its northern border.
• Pattern of Conflict: The conflict often follows a pattern where Iranian-backed groups attack Israel with missiles, and Israel responds with airstrikes in Syria. This pattern was notably evident when Hamas launched terror attacks on Israel in October 2023.

International Response

• Global Condemnation: Leaders from various countries worldwide have criticized the Iranian assault and have called for an immediate halt to hostilities.

Possible Consequences

Geopolitical Instability

The Iran-Israel conflict adds complexity to the geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. Iran's pursuit of regional dominance clashes with Israel's security concerns, leading to heightened tensions and instability. This conflict exacerbates rivalries between regional powers and has the potential to escalate into broader conflicts, impacting not only Iran and Israel but also neighboring countries and global stakeholders.

Security Threats

• Support for Proxy Groups: Iran's backing of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza provides these groups with capabilities to launch attacks against Israel. This poses a direct security threat to Israel and increases the risk of regional conflict.
• Military Actions: Israel's military actions, including airstrikes targeting Iranian assets in Syria, aim to counter these security threats. However, these actions can provoke retaliatory measures, further escalating tensions.

Regional Alliances

• Shifting Alliances: The Iran-Israel conflict influences regional alliances, with countries aligning themselves based on their stance towards Iran and Israel.
• Sunni and Shia Dynamics: Sunni-majority Arab states, particularly those wary of Iran's influence, may tacitly align with Israel against Shia-majority Iran. This alignment redefines traditional geopolitical alliances in the Middle East and contributes to the polarization of the region along sectarian and ideological lines.

Humanitarian Impact

• Civilian Suffering: Civilians in conflict zones such as Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria bear the brunt of the humanitarian impact. Ongoing violence, displacement, and infrastructure destruction exacerbate humanitarian crises and lead to civilian casualties.
• Aid Challenges: Humanitarian organizations face difficulties providing aid amid the conflict's volatile and unpredictable nature.

Geo-economic Consequences

The Iran-Israel conflict disrupts economic activities in the region, impacting trade, investment, and infrastructure development.

Impact on Oil Supplies

• Global Oil Markets: As the third-largest producer within OPEC, Iran plays a significant role in global crude oil markets. Further escalation of tensions could disrupt crude oil supplies, leading to potential price spikes in the global market.
• Inflation and Capital Outflow: Heightened geopolitical tensions typically lead to increased commodity prices, including crude oil and metals like copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel. This spike contributes to global inflation and prompts investors to shift from riskier assets to safer options like gold.

Financial Market Impact

• Investor Uncertainty: Increased uncertainty and risk aversion among investors could lead to a decline in bond prices and a rise in borrowing costs for companies.
• Stock Market Volatility: Stock markets may experience volatility due to reduced corporate profitability and heightened market uncertainty.
• Trade and Travel Disruptions: In the event of an all-out conflict between Israel and Iran, trade and travel could be severely disrupted. The aviation and shipping sectors may face challenges, with several countries in the region, including Iran, Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, and Israel, potentially closing their airspaces temporarily or imposing restrictions.

Maintaining a Balanced Stand: India's Position on the Iran-Israel Conflict

India issued a statement expressing "serious concern" over the escalation of hostilities between Iran and Israel and called for "immediate de-escalation." This balanced stance is rooted in several strategic and pragmatic reasons:

Reasons behind India's Stand

• Complex Regional Politics:

• Diverse Engagement: The Middle East is marked by deep and pervasive inter-state and intra-state conflicts. India must balance its engagement with key regional actors such as Egypt, Iran, Israel, Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, whose interests often conflict.

• Non-Ideological Engagement:

• Broad Interests: India’s interests in the Middle East are multifaceted and go beyond oil imports and labor exports. The Gulf Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have emerged as major economic and political partners for India.
• Strategic Partnerships: India maintains a non-ideological engagement to complement its expanding interests in the region.

Significance of the Region for India

• Threat to Indian Community:
  • Population at Risk: Approximately 18,000 Indians reside in Israel, 5,000-10,000 in Iran, and around 9 million in the Gulf and West Asia region. Any expanded conflict poses a significant risk to the Indian community in these areas.
• Energy Security:
  • Oil Dependence: The West Asia region contributes to 80% of India’s oil supplies. A potential conflict could severely impact these supplies and lead to rising energy prices.
  • Price Impact: Although India has mitigated the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on oil prices by purchasing discounted Russian oil, the Iran-Israel conflict could adversely affect global energy prices.
• Investment and Strategic Importance:
  • Strategic Relationships: India has invested significantly in its relationships with major Arab countries, Iran, and Israel. It views the region as its extended neighborhood and is pushing for the India-Middle-East-Europe Economic Corridor, which offers strategic and economic benefits.
  • Chabahar Port: The Chabahar Port in Iran is a critical strategic project, providing India access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan.
• Defense Relations with Israel:
  • Strategic Partnership: India maintains a deep strategic relationship with Israel, particularly in defense and security.
  • Defense Procurement: India is one of the largest purchasers of Israeli defense equipment, including the Barak 8 missile defense system, Heron drones, and Spike anti-tank guided missiles, enhancing India's defense capabilities, especially in border surveillance and missile defense.
  • Innovation and R&D: The India-Israel Defense Industrial R&D and Technological Innovation Fund (I2DF) underscores the commitment of both countries to fostering innovation and collaboration in defense research and development.

Way Ahead:

Dialogue and Diplomacy

• International Mediation: It is crucial to employ international mediation to broker a sustainable ceasefire between Israel and Iran. This can foster an environment conducive to dialogue and conflict resolution. Neutral mediators, such as the European Union or the United Nations, can facilitate direct talks, helping to build trust and paving the way for constructive negotiations.

Addressing Nuclear Proliferation Concerns

• JCPOA Compliance: Iran must adhere to the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to alleviate international concerns regarding nuclear proliferation. Transparency and cooperation through international inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities are crucial steps in rebuilding trust.
• Mutual Respect: In return, Israel should acknowledge Iran's legitimate right to pursue peaceful nuclear energy capabilities, fostering an atmosphere of mutual respect and understanding.

Regional Cooperation

• Collaborative Frameworks: Promoting collaboration between Iran and Israel within existing regional frameworks, such as the Arab League or the Gulf Cooperation Council, can help address shared security challenges and contribute to regional stability.
• Comprehensive Security Architecture: Developing comprehensive security architecture in the Middle East, supported by multilateral cooperation and dialogue, offers a pathway to mitigating conflict risks and fostering sustainable peace.

Long-Term Vision for the Middle East

• Resilient Security Framework: Regional powers must embrace a long-term vision focused on building a resilient security framework. This should include robust confidence-building measures; arms control agreements, and mechanisms for resolving historical grievances.
• Addressing Root Causes: Confronting the root causes of conflict, such as religious extremism and historical animosities, is essential for fostering genuine peace and reconciliation. Investing in education, interfaith dialogue, and cultural exchange can promote mutual understanding and tolerance.

Normalization of Relations

• Diplomatic Normalization: Initiating steps toward normalizing diplomatic relations between Iran and Israel is critical. This could involve the exchange of ambassadors, reopening embassies, and fostering people-to-people exchanges.
• Inspiration from Peace Agreements: Drawing inspiration from recent peace agreements between Israel and Arab states, such as the UAE and Bahrain, can provide a blueprint for building trust and cooperation between former adversaries. Embracing diplomacy and dialogue as the primary means of resolving differences can pave the way for a more stable and prosperous Middle East.